Labor delivered strong results in last weekend’s election for all four districts in the Greater Geelong region in a narrative that echoes the story of the state election battle overall.
Christine Couzens (Geelong) and Darren Cheeseman (South Barwon) retained their seats while enjoying swings in their direction, with Mr Cheeseman recording one of the biggest swings in the state.
Newcomers Alison Marchant (Bellarine) and Ella George (Lara) also won their districts for Labor, replacing outgoing ministers Lisa Neville and John Eren, although Labor suffered around three percent swings against in both contests.
Dr Geoff Robinson, senior lecturer in Politics and Policy Studies at Deakin University, said the public perception that the Liberal Party’s campaign was a personal and purely negative one had played against them.
“The image of the Liberal campaign from a public perspective was that it seemed to focus so much on Daniel Andrews’ personality and Andrews as an individual,” Dr Robinson said.
“If you look at the fine print, the Liberals actually released a lot of policy stuff. But overall, their campaign was seen as being ‘Andrews bad’.
“But obviously, voters didn’t think so; if you look at figures for leadership approval, that wasn’t the case. So the Liberal Party was fighting a losing battle.”
Dr Robinson said the change of candidates for Labor in Lara and Bellarine could have contributed to the swing to the Liberal Party.
“Looking at the figures for Bellarine, I thought obviously that Lisa Neville’s retirement may have been an issue there,” he said.
“For Lara, the retirement of John Eren was possibly a factor as well, although we did see a backlash against Labor in some of the really safe areas like Norlane and Corio, perhaps in a similar way to the western suburbs of Melbourne.”
Issues such as infrastructure development, government services and jobs were important to voters in the Geelong region, Dr Robinson said, which was a bonus for Labor, who were generally seen to be productive in those areas over past years.
“South Barwon had the biggest swing in the state, and that swing was most pronounced in Armstrong Creek and the new areas,” Dr Robinson said.
“There are lots of young families there benefitting from a strong economy, but who are also attracted to Labor’s services appeal and infrastructure development.
“Geelong told the story of a lot of the election; Labor doing well in outer suburbs with young families.
“The Liberal Party just didn’t cut through. They had lots of policies, they could point to real problems in health, and they had lots of big transport policies. But they made a mistake by allowing the campaign to become personally focused on Andrews.”
